Mighty Heart will chase history on Saturday when he attempts to capture the final jewel of Canada’s Triple Crown, the Breeders’ Stakes. All eyes rightfully will be on this talented colt as he tries to do the only thing he has yet to accomplish, win on the turf.
Mighty Heart was 11th in his only turf try, but it seems unfair to hold that against him as it was only his second career start and he completely blew the first turn. He is a much better horse now, but it is still fair to question whether he can handle the turf as well as dirt and synthetic.
We turn to our friends at Brisnet for free past performances to see whether there are any other chinks in the armor that could make this star colt vulnerable.
Mighty Heart leads the way on recent Brisnet Speed Figures. Clayton and Belichick, whom Mighty Heart has defeated in his last two races, are the only two runners in the same ballpark in this category. Clayton seems like a runner worth playing against. He had every chance to beat Mighty Heart last out and could not get the job done. He does not have the breeding to think he will move up on turf, and regression is expected.
Belichick is a bit intriguing and might be the biggest threat to Mighty Heart even though he is a maiden. He ran third on the turf behind Shirl’s Speight in a troubled debut and is bred to relish the surface.
He was second despite a rough trip in the Queen’s Plate, but he is trained by Might Heart’s trainer Josie Carrol and one would imagine she would not jeopardize the Triple Crown with another runner if she thought he could actually win.
Next we take a look at the Late Pace Last Race category to see if there are any horses who can run down Mighty Heart late. Mighty Heart gets a strong number in this category, which makes him tough as he can lay close to the pace.
English Conqueror is the only horse in the field with a higher figure than Mighty Heart. He just broke maiden, but unlike the favorite has proven turf form. He won going 1 1/16 miles and is by English Channel, which means he should improve going 1 1/2 miles in here.
In a race where the second choice is a maiden, it is not too far-fetched for this recent maiden breaker to make some noise.
The favorite will be tough, but it is difficult to single a horse at a low price trying a surface that they are unproven over. Play Mighty Heart, English Conqueror and Belichick in an exacta box and use all three in rolling exotic wagering.
Decide who you like by taking a closer look at the Breeders’ Stakes PPs below, with the option to go full screen in the lower right corner of the window. Visit our free past performances page to view free stakes PPs from across the country each week.